Story Spark: El Niño and ENSO
Last month, NOAA officially declared the end of a La Niña pattern and predicted an El Niño to form by mid-summer. Since then, climate models have aligned, highlighting that a strong El Niño is now likely — with some using adjectives such as “super” or “Godzilla” to describe this potentially historic event.
This level of attention is appropriate as the natural cycle of warm and cool water in the equatorial Pacific, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is arguably one of Earth’s most influential climate patterns, driving changes to temperature and precipitation trends around the world, oscillating between La Niña, El Niño and neutral. The stronger an El Niño pattern is the more persistent and widespread its impacts are. And this is far more than just a weather story: El Niño events have had tremendous human and economic impacts, influencing catastrophic droughts, driving infectious diseases outbreaks, worsening food and water insecurity, and disrupting global commerce.
Climate scientists are particularly concerned about this year’s anticipated event, as its release of heat stored in the Pacific may boost global temperatures — which are already sky high as a result of human-caused climate change. The most recent El Niño helped make 2024 the hottest year recorded in human history, and forecast models predict a similar, if not more intense boost, by the end of this year and into 2027.
Expert Tips
David Dickson, CCNow’s resident meteorologist and TV Engagement Coordinator, offers tips to help ensure your El Niño reporting is meteorologically factual.
No two El Niño/La Nina events are exactly the same. While each ENSO phase generally follows a pattern of influencing weather around the world — each event varies in terms of strength, duration, time of year it develops, and interactions with other climate and weather patterns. ENSO is one of many variables impacting how weather plays out in a region. For example, while Southern California saw a deluge of rain during the 1997–1998 El Niño, it remained relatively dry during the most recent event, in 2024.
Talk to a local meteorologist or climatologist. The impacts of El Niño on precipitation and temperatures vary across regions; meteorologists call this teleconnections. While studying maps of more consistent teleconnections associated with each phase of ENSO is a good place to begin getting a deeper understanding of these weather patterns, reach out to experts at your local weather or climate office to learn how previous El Niño events have played out in your area.
Climate change makes things more complicated. As oceans absorb excess heat from Earth’s warming atmosphere, the natural swings from El Niño and La Nina’s have become more pronounced. Not only has climate change influenced ENSO, but ENSO is amplifying climate change’s impacts, with more instances of widespread excessive heat, flooding, and drought. With climate change, it’s like Earth is already on a hot stove burner, and El Niño nudges that dial a bit more!
Consider your phrasing. While it’s accurate to say that an El Niño is “brewing” or “imminent,” avoid words often used for describing storms. For example, while ENSO is a physical phenomenon, it is limited to the waters of the equatorial Pacific, and will not “hit” your city.
Stories We Like
- In Southern Africa, record-breaking drought fueled by a recent El Niño has left millions in the region facing a hunger crisis made worse by climate change, Yale 360 reports.
- From Mexico City to Bogotá, cities grappled with reservoirs at risk of going dry as a result of El Niño’s impacts in 2024. Grist explores how these cities are taking inspiration from Cape Town’s municipal water management.
- While El Niños come and go, this year’s anticipated event may trigger significant, lasting changes to our climate as stored heat in the oceans gets released into the atmosphere, Inside Climate News reports.
- Given that ENSO’s impacts are felt strongest in winter, Yale Climate Connections explored what a previous strong El Niños meant for US winters.
Resources
- Find current ENSO conditions and updates on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website.
- Check out the (unfortunately now defunct) NOAA ENSO blog to better understand the science and impacts of past events.
- Explore the history and global influences of El Niño with resources from NASA.
- Watch CCNow and Climate Central’s recent press briefing: “2026’s “Super El Niño” and Its Potential Global Impacts” for more information on what’s expected for this year’s event.
Experts
- Tom Di Liberto, media director and climate scientist, Climate Central
- Paul Roundy, atmospheric science professor, University of Albany
Before We Go…
The next Locally Sourced will revisit extreme heat. Have you reported on heat’s wide-ranging public health impacts, highlighted local cooling solutions, or examined climate change’s role in heatwaves? Send them to us at local[at]coveringclimatenow[dot]org. We’d love to consider them for the next edition of Locally Sourced and our media trainings and social platforms.
CCNow Office Hours. Are you a journalist who needs help finding the local angle to a climate story? Sign up for office hours with CCNow’s David Dickson for editorial and climate support.
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