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Nearly half of the world’s population — 4 billion people in 72 countries — had the opportunity to vote in last year’s climate elections. The result: Incumbents were voted out and globally, politics saw a right-ward shift. Last year was also the warmest on record, the first in which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. What effect will these new leaders have on global climate action? How does power impede and propel progress? How do movements for progress build and use power? Vea la versión en español de “Poder y Progreso.”
Why Biden’s Climate Goals Still Matter
The US has announced ambitious new targets for lowering greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035. The targets are outlined in the updated US climate action plan (officially known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs) that the Biden administration submitted to the UN last month.
All 196 countries that signed on to the 2015 Paris Agreement are required to submit new NDCs every five years, detailing how they will contribute to reaching the goal of limiting global heating to as close to 1.5 degrees C as possible. The plans come at a tenuous time for global diplomacy and climate action, as President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to exit the Paris Agreement, prepares to take office.
Despite the fact that Trump will likely leave the Paris Agreement and ignore the NDCs, the targets “serve several purposes,” Fiona Harvey reports in the Guardian:
- It shows what the US could be doing to solve the crisis.
- It’s a yardstick for state and local governments and businesses to use as they continue with climate action, even under Trump.
- It could influence other countries to take stronger action.
Bookmark This: The Climate Action Tracker provides data and analysis on all 196 NDCs.
THE POWER
The Inflation Reduction Act and regulations put in place by the Biden administration made progress towards its 2030 targets (aiming to lower emissions by 50%-52% from 2005 levels), but not enough. Reaching them was always going to require additional state and local action, but now even more will be required — especially if Trump pulls out of the Paris Agreement a second time and pursues the energy policies he ran on.
Chart: Environmental Defense Fund study: Turning Climate Commitments Into Results: Evaluating Updated 2023 Projections vs. State Climate Targets, December 2023
Biden administration officials argue that reaching the target is still possible, even if Trump tries to roll back Biden’s climate actions.
THE PROGRESS
There is no question that the change in administration in Washington presents an obstacle for climate progress. “This [NDC] goal is very, very ambitious,” Robbie Orvis, senior director of modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation, an environmental policy firm, told The Washington Post. “To achieve these numbers, given the incoming administration, would require a lot of unprecedented policies from non-federal actors like states and cities.”
During the last Trump administration, state and local officials stepped up to organize for climate action. The US Climate Alliance, which includes governors from 24 states, and C40, a global network of mayors committed to taking action to confront the climate crisis, and over the past eight years, they’ve continued to work together with new plans, policies and regional coalitions to decarbonize their communities.
If the past is precedent, local and state officials are going to hold themselves to a higher standard, using the Biden NDCs as their “North Star” in creating more ambitious plans. NPR reports on a new study that shows if Trump rolls back key elements of Biden’s climate actions “then emissions likely would be reduced only 48% by 2035. That’s 13-18% short of the newly announced goal.”
Story Ideas
- What are NDCs? In the next few months, countries will be submitting their updated climate action plans in advance of the COP30 summit, which will be held this November in Brazil. Explain why they are important, and what the US needs to do to contribute to global action. Inside Climate News has a good explainer.
Recommended Sources: Climate Action Tracker, World Resources Institute, and the Rhodium Group.
- Past is prologue. What climate action did your state and local governments take during Trump’s first term? What are they planning now? Where is progress being made, where do local officials and experts expect it could be stymied? Canary Media recently looked at Illinois’s clean energy future.
- Talk to visionaries. Interview officials who are leading on local climate action plans. Look to C40 and US Climate Alliance for interview ideas.
- Hold the Trump administration accountable by explaining how IRA rollbacks and policies under discussion will impact the US’s ability to reach the climate-informed goals set by the Biden administration: 50% lower emissions by 2030, 61% lower emissions by 2035, and zero emissions by 2050.
PROGRESS CHART
Renewable energy in the US grew in 2024…
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